Quantum tracker

Hardware designs, error correction, post-quantum cryptography, and compliance - a curated, graded knowledge base, aggregated from the project's research corpus and refreshed by a scheduled tracker.

As of 2026-09. Curated + graded. Vendor logical-qubit claims are frequently DEMONSTRATION or POSTSELECTED results, not production systems - each is labeled. CRQC (cryptographically-relevant quantum computer) timelines are ESTIMATES with wide error bars; this page does not assert a break date. The 'live feed' is machine-collected and UNVERIFIED - kept strictly separate from this curated base.

The threat, briefly

CRQC. A cryptographically-relevant quantum computer (CRQC) runs Shor's algorithm at scale to recover RSA/ECC private keys from public keys. Breaking RSA-2048 is broadly estimated to need MILLIONS of physical qubits running deep fault-tolerant circuits.

Timelines (estimate). Practical quantum advantage on useful (non-crypto) problems: ~2027-2030 (chemistry/optimization). CRQC for RSA-2048: broad estimates 2033-2040+ - wide uncertainty, not a committed date.

Harvest-now, decrypt-later. Adversaries can capture encrypted data / exposed on-chain public keys today and decrypt once a CRQC exists ('harvest-now, decrypt-later') - which is why long-lived secrets and reused-address chains must migrate BEFORE the machine arrives.

The classical bridge. ECDSA is already fragile CLASSICALLY (weak-nonce key leakage - see the ECDSA.fail tracker); the quantum break is a second, later reason to migrate the signature layer. Same destination, two clocks.

Sections

Hardware → Six qubit modalities, best-known designs, fidelity leaderboard.

Error correction → Codes, thresholds/overhead, below-threshold milestones.

Post-quantum cryptography → PQC by subarea + NIST standards.

Compliance → Mandates, timelines, restrictions by region.

Live feed → 0 machine-collected items (unverified). Last fetch: not yet run.

From the research corpus

CRQC & quantum landscape Cryptographically-relevant quantum computer threat model + landscape.

Quantum computing (macro) Macro block: quantum compute in the AI/finance graph.

PQC chips Post-quantum crypto in silicon / hardware roots of trust.

Quantum competitive landscape Vendor-by-vendor competitive map.

Defense primes & PQC PQC in the defense-industrial base (QRL patent thread).

ECDSA weak-nonce failure tracker The classical signature fragility UNDER the quantum threat (ECDSA.fail).

Blockchain registry (QRL/XMSS) Quantum-resistant ledger + hash-based signatures.

Curated + graded knowledge base, aggregated from the research corpus and refreshed by a scheduled tracker. Grades: fact demo target estimate interp. The live feed is machine-collected and unverified. contact resistant@tuta.com