Quantum hardware

Six qubit modalities compete on different axes (fidelity, connectivity, coherence, gate speed, scalability). No modality has won; the practical winner will likely be whoever reaches hundreds of fault-tolerant LOGICAL qubits first. Physical-qubit counts are marketing until paired with fidelity and error correction.

Superconducting transmon

Microwave-driven Josephson-junction circuits at ~15 mK; fast (~microsecond) gates, chip-fab-friendly, but short coherence (~100 us) and mostly nearest-neighbor connectivity.

Leaders: IBM, Google, Rigetti, IQM
Strengths: Fast gates; mature fabrication; largest physical-qubit counts.
Weaknesses: Short coherence; limited connectivity; cryogenic overhead; wiring fan-out.
WhoMetricBest knownDate
Google Willowbelow-threshold surface codedistance-7, 101 qubits, 0.143%/cycle; Lambda=2.14 per +2 distance; 2.4x over best physical qubit2024-12 (Nature 638:920, 2025)fact
IBMtwo-qubit fidelity (Heron)materially improved; roadmap to Kookaburra ~4,158 physical qubits + qLDPC memory (~360 qubits, 7,500 gates)2026 targettarget
Google2Q physical fidelity99.88%2026fact

Roadmap: IBM: modular Quantum System Two -> 100,000+ qubits via chip-to-chip links; 200 logical qubits by 2029 (target). Google: fault-tolerant logical qubits before 2030 (target).

Trapped ion

Individual ions confined in EM traps, laser/microwave gates; the highest fidelities and all-to-all connectivity, but slow (~millisecond) gates limit shot throughput.

Leaders: Quantinuum, IonQ
Strengths: Highest gate fidelity; all-to-all connectivity; long coherence (s-min).
Weaknesses: Slow gates (throughput); laser/optics complexity; scaling ion counts is hard.
WhoMetricBest knownDate
Quantinuum Helioserror-corrected logical qubits50 logical at 2:1 encoding2025-11demo
Quantinuum + Microsoft (H2)logical qubits below physical error12 logical at ~2e-3 logical error ('reliable quantum computing')2026-03demo
Quantinuum H2logical qubits beyond break-even (postselected)up to ~94 error-protected; 48 from 98 physical at 2:12026-03demo
IonQ2Q gate fidelity99.9923% ('four nines', EQC) - world record2025-10fact
IonQ Tempoalgorithmic qubits64 AQ, all-to-all2026-Q1fact

Roadmap: Quantinuum Apollo: 100+ qubits; long-term 1,000+ ions below threshold (target). IonQ: photonic interconnect to 1,000+ ions; 800 logical qubits by 2027 (target; no below-threshold demo yet).

Neutral atom

Neutral atoms in optical tweezer arrays, Rydberg-state entangling gates; reconfigurable connectivity and large arrays, strong recent fault-tolerance progress.

Leaders: Atom Computing, QuEra, Infleqtion, Pasqal, Harvard (Lukin)
Strengths: Large arrays (1000+); reconfigurable/movable qubits; transversal gates; strong 2025-26 FT results.
Weaknesses: Atom loss; slower cycle times; measurement/reset engineering.
WhoMetricBest knownDate
Atom Computingphysical qubits>1000 neutral-atom qubits2024-25fact
Harvard (Lukin)integrated fault-tolerance ingredients448-atom: below-threshold surface-code-style QEC + transversal gates + teleportation universality + mid-circuit reuse + constant-entropy deep circuits2025demo
Infleqtionerror-corrected logical qubits12 logical on neutral atoms2025demo

Roadmap: Rapid FT progress; considered a top contender for first hundreds of logical qubits alongside superconducting/ion platforms.

Photonic

Qubits encoded in light (single photons / squeezed states); room-temperature-ish, network-native, measurement-based; PsiQuantum bets on fusion-based FT at fab scale.

Leaders: PsiQuantum, Xanadu, QuiX, Quandela
Strengths: Coherence-immune (photons don't decohere like matter); networking/interconnect native; silicon-photonics fab.
Weaknesses: Probabilistic gates / photon loss; huge resource-state overhead; detectors need cryo.
WhoMetricBest knownDate
PsiQuantumarchitecturefusion-based fault-tolerant photonic; utility-scale system build-outs announced (Brisbane AU, Chicago US)2024-26target
Xanaduphotonic milestonesBorealis quantum-advantage sampling; Aurora networked-modules demo2022-25demo

Roadmap: Long-horizon bet; if the photonic FT approach pays off it scales via manufacturing rather than qubit-by-qubit.

Silicon spin qubit

Electron/nuclear spins in silicon quantum dots; CMOS-compatible, tiny footprint, high fidelity but early on counts.

Leaders: Intel, Silicon Quantum Computing (SQC), Diraq, Quantum Motion
Strengths: CMOS/foundry-compatible; smallest qubits; high fidelity; potential for dense integration.
Weaknesses: Very early on qubit counts; uniformity/crosstalk; control wiring.
WhoMetricBest knownDate
Silicon Quantum Computinggate fidelity~99.99% (fidelity-leaderboard co-leader)2026fact
IntelplatformTunnel Falls spin-qubit chip on 300mm CMOS line2023-25fact

Roadmap: Betting on foundry manufacturability to scale once per-dot control is solved.

Topological

Information stored non-locally in anyons/Majorana modes; intrinsically error-protected IF the physics holds - long-contested experimentally.

Leaders: Microsoft
Strengths: Would be hardware-level error protection (fewer physical qubits per logical).
Weaknesses: Existence/measurement of the underlying quasiparticles remains scientifically contested; least mature.
WhoMetricBest knownDate
MicrosoftMajorana 1 / topological qubitclaimed topological-qubit device; underlying Majorana evidence disputed in the literature2025interp

Roadmap: Highest-risk / highest-reward; not yet a demonstrated computing platform.

2Q gate-fidelity leaderboard (2026-03)

2Q gate fidelity (higher = better)

WhoFidelityModality
IonQ99.99%trapped ion
Silicon Quantum Computing99.99%silicon spin
Quantinuum99.97%trapped ion
IQM99.91%superconducting
Infleqtion99.73%neutral atom

Curated + graded knowledge base, aggregated from the research corpus and refreshed by a scheduled tracker. Grades: fact demo target estimate interp. The live feed is machine-collected and unverified. contact resistant@tuta.com