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Independent research & opinion. Gradings are automated / LLM-assisted and may contain errors or hallucinations; nothing here is a statement of fact, financial advice, or an accusation of wrongdoing by any party. Claims about identifiable people or organizations reflect public records + good-faith interpretation; intent is not inferred from association. Methodology & disclaimer.

Russia — the silovik state: Putin's power vertical, the energy champions, the shadow fleet, Wagner→Africa Corps, the GRU/SVR/FSB triad, and the gold drawdown

Built 2026-06-22 from research/spec-russia-state-network.json. Builds out the Russia node (which already anchored CIPS, the APTs, Crude_Oil, frozen Euroclear assets). Companion to spec-surveillance-cyber-threat-layer (APTs), spec-semiconductor-logistics-standards (shipping chokepoints), macro-gold (hard-money lens), spec-cross-border-settlement-rails (CIPS), and the planned Ukraine block (#134).

Frame. Five layers: (1) the power vertical (Putin + the siloviki), (2) the energy champions (Gazprom, Rosneft/Sechin), (3) the shadow fleet, (4) the military/PMC arm (Wagner→Africa Corps), (5) the intelligence triad (GRU/SVR/FSB) — plus the gold drawdown funding a widening war deficit. Discipline. Office-holders, agencies, corporate structures, sanctions, shadow-fleet figures, reserve data = fact. "Power vertical / sanctions-evasion resilience / fortress-spent-down" = graded interpretation. Composition guard: the intel triad competes, it is not one mind. Overlay; excluded from the proofs.

1. The power vertical

Putin (25+ years) rebuilt a centralized vertical staffed by siloviki — security-service men (KGB/FSB lineage) atop the state and its enterprises (archetype: Igor Sechin running Rosneft). The war silenced the independent oligarchs: record billionaire count, but no political voice — dependent on the Kremlin via fear + sanctions + selective enforcement. Roles fact; "capture of the oligarchy" supported interpretation.

2. The energy champions

Gazprom (gas) and Rosneft (oil; Sechin) are the fiscal backbone. War + sanctions cut pipeline gas to Europe, shifting Russia to seaborne crude for Asia (India/China) at a discount — which makes the shadow fleet essential. Fact.

3. The shadow fleet (the evasion engine)

~400–600+ ageing tankers under flags of convenience, opaque ownership, substandard insurance move most of Russia's seaborne crude beyond Western reach. Despite designations, sanctioned tankers still loading rose 44 → 143 (Jan→Nov 2025); by early 2026 G7-sanctioned tankers carried ~68% of Russian crude; Ukraine catalogs ~1,337 shadow vessels. Uninsured tankers also degrade the maritime order at chokepoints (cable-cutting). Figures fact; "sanctions failed" supported.

4. The military / PMC arm

After Prigozhin's 2023 mutiny/death, Wagner's footprint was absorbed by Africa Corps (subordinate to the Defense Ministry), while the SVR took over Wagner's influence/disinfo arm ("The Company," ~100 consultants). Active across the Sahel/Libya (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Libya, CAR) — security-for-mining/gold access + political alignment. Fact.

5. The intelligence triad

FSB (Bortnikov, since 2008 — domestic, most powerful), GRU (Kostyukov, since 2018 — runs APT28/Fancy Bear + Sandworm), SVR (Naryshkin, since 2016 — runs APT29/Cozy Bear + the Africa influence op). Key nuance (composition guard): they compete more than cooperate — multiple, sometimes contradictory tracks, not one disciplined strategy. This refines the cyber-layer attributions to the precise operators. Fact.

6. The gold drawdown

Facing a ~$61B deficit (Mar 2026) widened by war + oil discounts, the Bank of Russia is selling gold — ~22 tonnes early 2026, reserves to ~2,305 tonnes (multi-year low), with estimates of ~230 tonnes (~$30B) for the year. The pre-war "gold fortress" is being spent down to fund the war. CBR data fact; "fortress spent" interpretation.

7. The honest reading

A sanctioned petrostate run by a security-service elite, financing a war through discounted seaborne oil (shadow fleet), a spent-down gold reserve, and alternative rails (CIPS) — projecting power via a state-PMC (Africa Corps) and a competing-but-active intel triad waging hybrid/cyber war. The structural finding: resilience-via-evasion (sanctions degraded but didn't stop the revenue) plus fiscal strain (gold drawdown, deficit). No single omniscient plan — the siloviki and services are rivalrous (composition guard).

Sources: Baltic Sentinel — shadow fleet grew in 2025; Russian shadow fleet (Wikipedia); Africa Corps (Wikipedia)); Kitco — CBR selling gold; Congress.gov — GRU/SVR/FSB; Carnegie — oligarchs' wartime tightrope.

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