The Farm Credit System — a ~$544B agricultural GSE off the FDIC map

Built 2026-06-15. Structured data + edges: macro-farm-credit-system.json. Deep companion to macro-uncovered-risk-pools §4. (WebFetch unavailable; figures from FFCB/FCA/USDA/AFBF surfacing. Correction vs earlier framing: total assets ~$544B and FFCB debt ~$459B — both larger than the ~$400B previously cited; the $544B total is single-snippet-sourced, confirm vs the AIS.)

A privately-owned, federally-chartered cooperative GSE — the single largest US agricultural lender (~45.8% of farm debt) — funded by ~$459B of joint-and-several Systemwide Debt with implicit (not explicit) federal backing, entirely off the FDIC map. Its risk is highly correlated: one sector, heavy China-export dependence, and a borrower base hit at once by the 2024-25 income downturn, record debt, and a tariff shock larger than 2018-19 — cushioned so far by still-rising (but decelerating) farmland values and big government payments.

1. Size & capital

• Total assets ~$544.4B (YE2024, contested — confirm vs the AIS); gross loans $428.9B; capital $78.8B (+$5.5B YoY); net income $7.80B (FY2024). NIM 2.41% (vs ~3.52% for ag community banks) — the GSE funding advantage. The ~$115B asset-loan gap is the investment/liquidity portfolio.

2. Structure — 4 banks + ~55 associations

• CoBank (~$209B) > AgriBank (~$165B loans / ~$200B) >> AgFirst (~$48B) > Farm Credit Bank of Texas (~$39.5B). Association counts (Mar 2026): AgFirst 16, CoBank 16, FCB Texas 12, AgriBank 11.
• CoBank is distinct: beyond wholesale funding, it lends directly to agribusiness coops AND rural electric/water/communications/broadband coops in all 50 states — >75% of US electric distribution coops bank with CoBank. The FCS is also a rural-infrastructure financier.

3. FFCB funding

• The Federal Farm Credit Banks Funding Corporation issues ~$459B of Systemwide Debt Securities (Aug 2025, +30% since 2021) — joint-and-several obligations of the 4 banks, NOT US-guaranteed (implicit GSE backing). The Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation (FCSIC) insures timely P&I.

4. Farmland & credit

• Cropland $5,830/acre (2025, +4.7%); all farm RE $4,350 (+4.3%) — still appreciating but decelerating (a plateau). Farm-sector debt record (>$0.5T 2023; $624.7B forecast 2026). Net farm income forecast +37% to $179.8B (2025) — but heavily distorted by one-time government payments; underlying crop receipts weak on low corn/soy.
• Deteriorating credit: FCS nonperforming assets $4.4B / 1.00% (Sep 2025), up from $3.5B/0.81% (YE2024) and 0.64% a year prior — nearly doubled in dollars in ~12 months off a low base; charge-offs +72%; Chapter 12 farm bankruptcies 216 (2024) → 315 (2025) (still below the 2019 peak of 599).

5. Concentration / tail

• ~45.8% of all US ag debt (the largest lender). Deterioration concentrated in tree nuts, wine/grapes, cotton, rice. The dominant macro risk is the China tariff/boycott: US ag exports to China down >$6.8B (~73%) since Jan 2025; total 2025/26 China-tariff losses ~$14.9B (~41% larger than 2018/19); China is >50% of US soybean exports. A Nov-2025 deal (China to buy 12 MMT + 25 MMT/yr through 2028) offers partial relief. The cushion holding off a credit event: land values, government payments, and the FCSIC + joint-and-several structure.

Synthesis

A ~$544B GSE funding ~$459B of implicitly-backed joint-and-several debt entirely outside the FDIC lens, dominant in one correlated sector, on a plateauing collateral base into a China-tariff ag shock larger than 2018-19 — held together so far by land values and government payments. A correlated, single-sector tail in the uncovered stack; CoBank also makes it a rural-infrastructure lender.

What is NOT asserted

• No claim the FCS is in distress — well-capitalized ($78.8B), profitable ($7.80B); the point is correlated single-sector risk + deteriorating credit + a plateauing collateral base into a tariff shock.
• Total assets ~$544B is single-snippet-sourced (contested); AgFirst/AgriBank figures mix vintages; 2025 net farm income's +37% is government-payment-distorted.
• FCS debt is NOT US-guaranteed (implicit GSE only).
• Overlay edges are excluded from the proofs.

Sources: FFCB Funding — investor presentation/earnings; Farm Credit East — FCS Q4 2024 financials; CoBank — 2024 year-end results; FCA — banks & associations; USDA NASS — Land Values 2025; USDA ERS — assets/debt/wealth; American Farm Bureau — farm bankruptcies 2025; Capital Press — credit-quality deterioration; Investigate Midwest — China tariff/exports.

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