The NVIDIA <-> OpenAI Circular-Funding Web
Forensic compilation — as of 2026-06-05. Every figure carries a source URL. Status is classified as: closed (money/contract executed), committed (binding definitive agreement, not yet fully funded), signed-LOI (letter of intent / non-binding), or reported-rumored (press reporting only). "Circular" flags a round-trip: a supplier puts capital/credit into a customer that then buys the supplier's product.
Executive narrative
In 2025–2026 NVIDIA became both the dominant supplier of AI compute and an equity investor in many of the customers buying that compute. The clearest documented round-trips:
- NVIDIA -> OpenAI: The headline "up to $100B progressive equity" announcement (Sept 22, 2025) was a letter of intent, tied to deploying 10GW of NVIDIA systems, paid in progressively as each GW deployed. It never reached a definitive agreement — CFO Colette Kress confirmed no signed deal (Dec 2025); WSJ reported talks "on ice" (Jan/Feb 2026). It was effectively replaced by a clean $30B direct equity check from NVIDIA into OpenAI's Feb/Mar 2026 mega-round (no GW conditionality). So the famous $100B figure is rumor/LOI that lapsed; the real, closed NVIDIA->OpenAI number is $30B.
- NVIDIA -> CoreWeave: ~7% equity stake plus a take-or-pay backstop — under the April 2023 MSA, a Sept 9, 2025 order form (initial value $6.3B) obligates NVIDIA to buy CoreWeave's residual unsold cloud capacity through April 13, 2032. CoreWeave buys NVIDIA GPUs; NVIDIA guarantees CoreWeave's revenue. Textbook circular.
- NVIDIA -> xAI: ~$2B into xAI's $20B Series E; the round's SPV literally exists to buy NVIDIA GPUs for Colossus 2. Explicitly circular.
- NVIDIA -> Anthropic: up to $10B (with Microsoft up to $5B), Nov 18, 2025; Anthropic commits $30B to Azure and up to 1GW, "powered by NVIDIA." Circular.
- NVIDIA -> Intel ($5B, closed Dec 2025), Nokia ($1B, Oct 2025), Nscale, Mistral — vendor/strategic investments, several into entities that buy NVIDIA silicon.
On the OpenAI demand side, OpenAI has stacked ~$1.4 trillion of disclosed compute commitments (Altman, Nov 2025) against a ~$20B revenue run-rate (end-2025) and large losses ($13.5B net loss in H1 2025 alone). The commitment web: Microsoft ($250B incremental Azure), Oracle/Stargate (~$300B), AMD (6GW + 160M-share warrant), Broadcom (10GW custom XPUs), CoreWeave (~$22.4B), and NVIDIA GPU purchases.
The skeptic's core point: suppliers (NVIDIA, AMD, Microsoft, Oracle) are funding the buyer (OpenAI/Anthropic/xAI), who recycles that capital straight back into the suppliers' products — inflating both sides' revenue/valuation optics.
Edge table
| From | To | Instrument | Amount (USD) | Date | Status | Circular | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVIDIA | OpenAI | Progressive equity (10GW LOI) | up to 100B | 2025-09-22 | signed-LOI (lapsed) | yes | high |
| NVIDIA | OpenAI | Direct equity (mega-round) | 30B | 2026-02-27 / closed 2026-03-31 | closed | yes | high |
| NVIDIA | CoreWeave | Equity stake (~7%) | ~0.35B at-cost; ~7% | pre-IPO 2025 | closed | yes | high |
| NVIDIA | CoreWeave | Take-or-pay backstop (residual capacity) | 6.3B initial | 2025-09-09 (MSA 2023) | committed (thru 2032) | yes | high |
| NVIDIA | xAI | Equity (Series E) | up to 2B | 2025 (Series E $20B) | committed/closed | yes | high |
| NVIDIA | Anthropic | Equity | up to 10B | 2025-11-18 | committed | yes | high |
| NVIDIA | Intel | Common stock (~4%) | 5B | announced 2025-09-18; closed 2025-12 | closed | partial | high |
| NVIDIA | Nokia | Equity (directed share issue) | 1B | 2025-10-28 | committed/closed | partial | high |
| NVIDIA | Nscale | Equity | ~0.5–0.7B | 2025-09 | committed | partial | med |
| NVIDIA | Mistral | Equity (Series C participation) | undisclosed (round EUR1.7B) | 2025-09 | closed | partial | med |
| OpenAI | Microsoft | Azure compute commitment (incremental) | 250B | 2025-10-28 | committed | yes | high |
| OpenAI | Oracle | Cloud/compute (Stargate, ~4.5GW) | ~300B | 2025-07/09 | committed | no | high |
| OpenAI | CoreWeave | Compute contracts (cumulative) | ~22.4B | 2025-03 / 05 / 09 | committed | no | high |
| OpenAI | AMD | 6GW Instinct + warrant (up to 160M sh @ $0.01) | ~tens of B rev; ~10% warrant | 2025-10-05/06 | committed (warrant issued) | no | high |
| OpenAI | Broadcom | 10GW custom AI accelerators (XPU) | undisclosed (est. 150–200B) | 2025-10-13 | committed | no | high |
| OpenAI | NVIDIA | GPU/systems purchases (10GW) | part of $1.4T | 2025-09-22 onward | committed | yes | high |
| SoftBank | OpenAI | Equity ($40B round + $30B follow-on) | 41B funded + 30B follow-on | 2025 (closed Dec 2025) / 2026-02-27 | closed + committed | no | high |
| Amazon | OpenAI | Equity (mega-round) | 50B (15B initial + 35B) | 2026-02-27 | committed | no | high |
Entity snapshot
- OpenAI — recapitalized Oct 28, 2025 into OpenAI Group PBC (controlled by nonprofit foundation). Microsoft holds ~27% (~$135B). Valuation: ~$500B (Oct 2025 secondary) -> ~$840B post-money (Feb 27, 2026, $110B round at $730B pre) -> ~$852B after $122B round closed Mar 31, 2026. Revenue run-rate ~$20B (end-2025); net loss ~$13.5B in H1 2025. ~$1.4T disclosed compute commitments over ~8 years.
- NVIDIA — supplier turned strategic investor across the customer base ("vendor financing"/round-trip pattern flagged by analysts).
- CoreWeave — NVIDIA ~7% holder; revenue backstopped by NVIDIA take-or-pay through 2032.
- AMD — issued OpenAI a warrant for up to 160M shares (~10%) at $0.01, vesting on GPU-purchase milestones (1GW first tranche, full at 6GW).
Documented circular dollars (defensible)
Counting supplier->customer capital flows that recycle into supplier products:
- NVIDIA->OpenAI $30B (closed equity) — circular (OpenAI buys NVIDIA).
- NVIDIA->CoreWeave $6.3B backstop (+ ~7% stake) — circular.
- NVIDIA->xAI ~$2B — circular (SPV buys NVIDIA GPUs).
- NVIDIA->Anthropic up to $10B (+ Microsoft $5B) against $30B Azure/NVIDIA spend — circular.
Conservative documented NVIDIA-side circular total: ~$48B closed/committed (excluding the lapsed $100B LOI and the indirect Intel/Nokia/Nscale/Mistral cases). If the lapsed $100B LOI is included as "announced," the headline circular figure cited in press is ~$110B+.
What could NOT be verified / caveats
- Broadcom 10GW dollar value — financial terms officially undisclosed; "$150–200B" is a Mizuho estimate, not company-confirmed.
- NVIDIA->xAI exact amount — reported "up to $2B"; precise funded amount not separately confirmed in a filing.
- Nscale — sources conflict (£500M vs $667M); treat as ~$0.5–0.7B.
- Mistral — NVIDIA's specific check size within the EUR1.7B round not disclosed.
- The $100B NVIDIA->OpenAI LOI — never became a definitive agreement; no money changed hands under it (WSJ, CNBC, CFO confirmation). Do not count as closed.
- $1.4T commitment figure — Altman's verbal characterization (Nov 2025), not a single audited schedule; mixes binding and framework deals across ~8 years.
Sources
- NVIDIA->OpenAI LOI: https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/openai-nvidia/ ; https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/22/nvidia-openai-data-center.html
- LOI lapsed / replaced: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/03/nvidia-openai-stalled-on-their-mega-deal-ai-giants-need-each-other.html ; https://gizmodo.com/the-100-billion-openai-nvidia-deal-is-not-happening-2000729749
- OpenAI mega-round ($110B/$122B, $30B NVIDIA): https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/27/open-ai-funding-round-amazon.html ; https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/31/openai-funding-round-ipo.html ; https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-31/openai-valued-at-852-billion-after-completing-122-billion-round
- NVIDIA->CoreWeave backstop (SEC 8-K): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001769628/000176962825000047/crwv-20250909.htm
- CoreWeave ~7% / $6.3B context: https://invezz.com/news/2025/09/15/coreweave-shares-jump-7-after-unveiling-6-3-billion-nvidia-deal/
- NVIDIA->xAI: https://x.ai/news/series-e ; https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-reportedly-invest-2bn-elon-101712438.html
- NVIDIA/Microsoft->Anthropic: https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2025/11/18/microsoft-nvidia-and-anthropic-announce-strategic-partnerships/ ; https://www.anthropic.com/news/microsoft-nvidia-anthropic-announce-strategic-partnerships
- NVIDIA->Intel $5B: https://fortune.com/2025/09/18/nvidia-intel-5-billion-investment/ ; https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/nvidia-gives-intel-a-lifeline-with-usd5-billion-common-stock-deal-september-deal-gets-ftc-approval-for-more-than-217-4-million-intel-shares-at-usd23-28-per-share
- NVIDIA->Nokia $1B: https://www.nokia.com/newsroom/inside-information-nvidia-to-make-usd-1-billion-equity-investment-in-nokia-in-addition-to-new-strategic-partnership-nokias-board-resolved-on-directed-share-issuance-to-nvidia/
- NVIDIA->Nscale/Mistral: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/26/nvidia-ai-startup-investments-europe-chips-jensen-huang.html ; https://www.nscale.com/press-releases/nscale-series-b
- OpenAI->Microsoft ($250B Azure, 27% stake, PBC): https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2025/10/28/the-next-chapter-of-the-microsoft-openai-partnership/ ; https://www.geekwire.com/2025/microsoft-secures-27-stake-in-openai-in-new-deal-with-commitment-for-250b-in-azure-usage/ ; https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/28/open-ai-for-profit-microsoft.html
- OpenAI->Oracle (~$300B Stargate): https://openai.com/index/five-new-stargate-sites/ ; https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/openai-signs-300bn-cloud-deal-with-oracle-report/
- OpenAI->CoreWeave (~$22.4B): https://www.coreweave.com/news/coreweave-expands-agreement-with-openai-by-up-to-6-5b
- OpenAI->AMD (6GW + warrant, SEC 8-K): https://ir.amd.com/financial-information/sec-filings/content/0001193125-25-230895/d28189d8k.htm ; https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/06/openai-amd-chip-deal-ai.html
- OpenAI->Broadcom (10GW XPU): https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/openai-and-broadcom-announce-strategic-collaboration-deploy-10 ; https://www.servethehome.com/broadcom-and-openai-announce-a-10gw-custom-xpu-deal/
- SoftBank->OpenAI: https://group.softbank/en/news/press/20251231 ; https://group.softbank/en/news/press/20260227 ; https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/30/softbank-openai-investment.html
- OpenAI $1.4T commitments / $20B ARR: https://techcrunch.com/2025/11/06/sam-altman-says-openai-has-20b-arr-and-about-1-4-trillion-in-data-center-commitments/
- OpenAI losses / burn skepticism: https://fortune.com/2025/11/12/openai-cash-burn-rate-annual-losses-2028-profitable-2030-financial-documents/
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